CAPITALDIGEST DAILYNEWS, 26/10/2026

AGAIN, PETROL PRICE HIKE LOOMS AFTER CRUDE HITS $115

The sharp rise in international crude oil prices could trigger another increase in petrol prices in Nigeria, with Brent crude climbing to $115.18 per barrel on Friday amid growing fears of renewed military strikes on Iran and further disruptions to global oil supplies. The latest rally in crude prices comes as Dangote Petroleum Refinery and other depot owners sell petrol at N1350 at their gantries. A further increase in the cost of crude could put additional pressure on domestic petrol prices, with marketers facing higher replacement costs and the possibility of passing the increases on to consumers. According to Oilprice.com, Brent crude climbed to a five-month high on Friday as escalating tensions in the Middle East heightened concerns over global oil supplies, raising the prospect of another increase in petrol prices in Nigeria. The international benchmark rose by 1.8 per cent to $115.18 per barrel, while United States West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained two per cent to $101.56 per barrel, amid growing expectations that Washington could resume military strikes on Iran in the coming weeks. The rally comes as Nigerian consumers continue to grapple with elevated petrol prices, which affected inflationary pressure and heightened the cost of living. Although no fresh increase has been announced by either refiners or importers, sustained increases in international crude prices usually put further pressure on domestic petrol prices by raising feedstock and refined-product replacement costs. CNBC reports that the latest oil price rally was driven by fears of a renewed military escalation involving the United States and Iran, alongside attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping routes in the Middle East. Reuters reported on Friday that Brent crude had touched $115.16 per barrel, its highest level since May 4, as attacks by Houthi militants in Saudi Arabia heightened concerns about further disruption to energy supplies. The report also highlighted the evacuation of Saudi Aramco’s headquarters in Dhahran amid intensifying regional fighting. Brent futures were on course for a weekly gain of about five per cent, which would mark their third consecutive week of increases. WTI was also heading for a weekly gain, although its advance was considerably smaller. The renewed concerns followed remarks by United States President Donald Trump on Wednesday that Washington was not negotiating with Iran and that something would happen “fairly soon”. The comments came amid reports that US and Israeli officials were considering fresh strikes against Iran after the American midterm elections. Iran’s army chief, meanwhile, said the country’s military was fully prepared for “asymmetric warfare” after strengthening its capabilities, according to the Iranian state media agency Tasnim. The growing tensions have also extended to Saudi Arabia, where Iran-allied Houthi militants have continued attacks. The United States State Department ordered non-essential personnel to leave the country amid the security concerns. A drone attack targeting the Shaybah oil field in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Region on Wednesday reportedly killed two people and injured two others. Another attack on King Fahd International Airport in Dammam also left at least two people dead and eight injured, according to Saudi state media. Reuters reported that Saudi Aramco had ordered staff to evacuate its Dhahran headquarters and work remotely following attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels. The developments have raised fears of further disruption to crude production, exports and shipping across the Middle East, a region central to global energy supplies. Of particular concern is the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway through which a significant share of the world’s oil supplies normally passes. Disruptions to shipping through the strait have already contributed to market volatility, while renewed attacks could further tighten supplies and increase freight and insurance costs. For Nigeria, higher international crude prices could feed into the cost of petrol supplied by domestic refiners and imported products, depending on their crude procurement costs, refining margins, logistics and prevailing market prices. Dangote Petroleum Refinery, a major supplier to the domestic market, last announced an increase in its petrol gantry price from N1,265 to N1,350 per litre, effective 12 September.

CBN DEFENDS 75% RESERVE REQUIREMENT ON PUBLIC DEPOSITS

The Central Bank of Nigeria has defended its decision to impose a 75 per cent Cash Reserve Ratio on non-Treasury Single Account public sector deposits, describing the measure as part of efforts to manage liquidity and contain inflationary pressures in the economy. The Director of the Stakeholder Engagement and Institutional Relations Department, Hakama Sidi-Ali, explained the policy during the CBN Listens Programme held in Ibadan, Oyo State, on Thursday. The CBN introduced the 75 per cent Cash Reserve Ratio on non-Treasury Single Account public sector deposits at its 302nd Monetary Policy Committee meeting held on 22 and 23 September, 2025. In a statement issued on Friday, the apex bank said Sidi Ali highlighted “the implementation of a 75 per cent Cash Reserve Ratio on non-Treasury Single Account public sector deposits as part of the Bank’s efforts to improve liquidity management and mitigate inflationary pressures in the economy.” The CRR is the proportion of customer deposits that banks must keep with the central bank rather than deploy for lending or other activities. The policy is intended to restrict excess liquidity in the banking system and strengthen the transmission of monetary policy, although it also limits the funds banks can deploy from the affected deposits. Sidi-Ali said the CBN, under Governor Olayemi Cardoso, had continued implementing monetary and financial sector reforms aimed at restoring macroeconomic stability, strengthening financial markets and improving confidence in the economy. She identified the unification of exchange rates and introduction of the Bloomberg BMatch trading system as measures designed to improve transparency and efficiency in foreign exchange transactions. The director also described the banking sector recapitalisation programme as a major milestone, saying it had strengthened banks’ capital adequacy, resilience and capacity to support economic growth. Other initiatives highlighted included the Non-Resident Bank Verification Number, introduced to improve banking access for Nigerians in the diaspora, and the Nigeria Payments System Vision 2028. She also cited the Nigerian Overnight Financing Rate, developed in collaboration with the Financial Markets Dealers Association, as a market-based benchmark for short-term funding transactions. According to her, the benchmark is intended to improve transparency in the money market and align Nigeria’s financial infrastructure with international practices. On financial inclusion, Sidi-Ali said the bank would continue working with financial institutions, fintech companies, mobile money operators, development partners and state governments to expand financial services to underserved communities. She maintained that wider access to financial services was necessary to support entrepreneurship, reduce poverty and create economic opportunities.Speaking on the engagement programme, she said sustained dialogue with stakeholders would help the bank address misconceptions about its policies and identify emerging challenges affecting businesses and households. “The Central Bank of Nigeria values your diverse perspectives, experiences, concerns, and recommendations. Your contributions today will help shape future engagements and strengthen the effectiveness of our policy interventions,” she noted.

MONEY MARKET FUNDS DRIVE MUTUAL FUND ASSETS TO N10TN  

Nigeria’s mutual fund industry grew to N9.89tn in net assets as of 9 October, 2026, with money market funds accounting for nearly 68 per cent of the total, highlighting investors’ strong concentration in the asset class. Data from the Securities and Exchange Commission’s weekly net asset value report showed that collective investment scheme assets increased by N43.76bn, or 0.44 per cent, from N9.84tn in the preceding week. Money market funds held N6.72tn, representing 67.96 per cent of total assets, after gaining N45.81bn during the week. The increase exceeded the industry’s overall growth, as declines in several other fund categories offset part of the gain. Dollar-denominated funds ranked second, with N1.75tn, accounting for 17.7 per cent of industry assets. Together, money market and dollar funds held approximately N8.47tn, or 85.66 per cent of the total. The concentration leaves equity and bond funds with relatively small shares of the market. Equity-based funds held N239.40bn, while bond and fixed-income funds recorded N230.92bn. Their combined value represented less than five per cent of total assets. Real estate investment trusts held N520.31bn, while balanced funds accounted for N199.08bn. Shariah-compliant funds had N151.99bn, specialised funds N54.71bn and ethical funds N20.57bn. The industry’s assets have increased steadily in recent weeks, rising from N9.54tn on 21 August to N9.89tn on 9 October. That represents growth of N345.63bn, or 3.62 per cent. Money market funds continued to drive the expansion, with their net asset value rising by 5.52 per cent from N6.37tn recorded on 14 August. Stanbic IBTC Money Market Fund remained the country’s largest fund, with assets of N3.13tn, according to SEC rankings dated 2 October. Seven of the 10 largest funds were money market products, underlining the segment’s dominance. However, changes in net asset value do not necessarily represent fresh investor inflows, as they can also reflect redemptions, investment income and valuation changes. Dollar funds’ reported naira value can also fluctuate with exchange rates.

NGX SHEDS N100BN AS BEARISH SENTIMENT PERSISTS

Trading on the Nigerian Exchange closed on a negative note on Thursday, with the market capitalisation dipping to approximately N159.05tn from the N159.15tn recorded on Wednesday. The All-Share Index similarly decreased by 159.55 points, moving from 245,116.49 to settle at 244,956.94. Throughout the session, the market recorded a total volume of 360,706,232 shares traded across 31,355 deals. The Central Bank of Nigeria benchmark Monetary Policy Rate remained fixed at 23.00 per cent. In the equity gainers category, Ava Capital led the advancers with a 9.85 per cent increase, rising from N6.60 to N7.25, followed by PZ Cussons Nigeria, which gained 8.58 per cent to close at N68.95. Other notable equity gainers included Tantalizers up by 5.85 per cent, International Energy Insurance gaining 5.42 per cent, and VFD Group rising 3.59 per cent. Conversely, Thomas Wyatt Nigeria suffered the steepest loss of the day, dropping 10.00 per cent to close at N2.52. Additional significant losers included Austin Laz and Company down by 8.81 per cent, Secure Electronic Technology falling 6.85 per cent, and UPDC Plc dropping by 6.49 per cent. Across the exchange, sectoral indexes displayed mixed movements. The NGX Main-Board Index declined to 10,752.60, the NGX 30 Index settled at 9,010.45, and the NGX Banking Index closed lower at 2,452.40. However, the NGX Growth Index experienced an increase, closing at 26,839.75 compared to the previous day’s 26,724.27, while the NGX Sovereign Bond Index remained unchanged at 661.50. Exchange Traded Products also saw activity, with the Vetiva Industrial ETF leading the ETF gainers by rising 4.81 per cent to N118.96, whereas the Siam Pension ETF 40 recorded the highest loss among ETFs, dropping 6.75 per cent to close at N1,921.00.

FX TURNOVER SHEDS $749M AS FORWARD DEALS CRASH 81%

The value of dollar transactions in Nigeria’s foreign exchange market fell by 22.23 per cent to $2.62bn in the week ended 16 October 2026, from $3.37bn recorded the previous week. The decline followed a slowdown in direct dollar trading and a sharp drop in forward transactions, according to data from FMDQ, which tracks FX deals between authorised dealers and their customers. Total trading fell by $749.15m during the week, reversing part of the increase recorded in the previous week. Forward transactions, which allow businesses to agree on an exchange rate today for a currency deal at a future date, dropped by 81.14 per cent to $24.89m from $131.95m. The transactions accounted for just 0.95 per cent of total dollar trading during the week, compared with 3.92 per cent a week earlier. Average daily forward transactions also fell sharply to $4.98m from $26.39m. Forward contracts help businesses manage exchange rate risks. For instThe latest figures measure forward deals completed during the week, not the total value of outstanding contracts. Spot transactions, which involve buying or selling dollars for near-immediate delivery, fell by 19.83 per cent to $2.60bn from $3.24bn. The decline amounted to $642.09m, accounting for most of the reduction in total FX trading. Spot deals represented 99.05 per cent of all transactions during the week, up from 96.08 per cent in the previous week. Average daily spot trading fell to $519.16m from $647.58m, while average daily turnover across the market dropped to $524.14m from $673.97m. Despite the weekly decline, total dollar trading remained above the $1.70bn recorded in the week ended 2 October. The latest turnover was 54.43 per cent higher than the 2 October figure, although that week had four trading days, compared with five trading days in the weeks ended 9 October 9 and 16 October. The decline in weekly trading comes against a backdrop of strong demand for foreign exchange in Nigeria. The FX demand had reached a 15-year high of $18.34bn in the second quarter of 2026, driven largely by payments for services and financial transactions.