CAPITALDIGEST DAILYNEWS, 28/09/2026

OIL PRODUCTION REACHES 307 BARRELS IN SIX MONTHS – FG

Nigeria produced about 307 million barrels of crude oil and condensate between March and August 2026, according to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission. The figures showed that the country’s combined crude oil and condensate production averaged about 1.67 million barrels per day during the six-month period, with output rising steadily between March and June before declining slightly in July and August. NUPRC data showed that Nigeria produced 1.56 million barrels per day in March, translating to about 48.49 million barrels for the month. Production increased to 1.66 million barrels per day in April, resulting in approximately 49.90 million barrels, while May recorded 1.70 million barrels per day, equivalent to about 52.72 million barrels. The country recorded its highest daily production during the period in June, when combined crude oil and condensate output reached 1.74 million barrels per day. Based on the 30 days in the month, this amounted to about 52.06 million barrels. However, production declined in July, when Nigeria recorded 1.67 million barrels per day, translating to about 51.80 million barrels. Output remained around the same level in August, rising marginally to 1.68 million barrels per day and producing approximately 52.01 million barrels. In total, the monthly figures indicate that Nigeria produced about 306.99 million barrels of crude oil and condensate between March and August. The data showed that March was the lowest-producing month during the period, while June recorded the highest daily production rate. The production recovery came after output rose from 1.56 million barrels per day in March to 1.74 million barrels per day in June, an increase of about 171,298 barrels per day. Although output declined after the June peak, production remained above the March level in both July and August. The NUPRC figures also showed that crude oil accounted for about 1.50 million barrels per day of the average production during the period, while condensate contributed approximately 180,000 barrels per day. On an annualised basis, the average combined production rate of about 1.67 million barrels per day would translate to more than 600 million barrels if sustained for 12 months. The data further indicated that Nigeria’s average crude oil production was in line with its stated Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries quota of 1.50 million barrels per day, representing full compliance with the quota. The development is significant for Nigeria, whose government relies heavily on crude oil production for foreign exchange earnings and government revenue. The figures also came as the country continued efforts to raise oil production through measures aimed at tackling crude theft, pipeline vandalism, operational disruptions and other challenges affecting upstream output. The NUPRC has continued to monitor production from oil fields and operators as Nigeria seeks to increase output and maximise revenue from its petroleum resources. Overall, the March-August figures showed a sustained improvement in Nigeria’s oil production compared with the March level, although output remained below the June peak in the final two months of the period.

NTB STOP RATES FALL ON CBN RATE CUT

Treasury bill stop rates plunged across all three maturities at Wednesday’s primary market auction, with rates falling by 70 to 80 basis points following the Central Bank of Nigeria’s 350-basis-point monetary policy rate cut. The 91-day Treasury bill recorded the largest decline, as its stop rate dropped to 15.50 per cent from 16.30 per cent. The 182-day bill followed with a 70-basis-point decline to 15.80 per cent from 16.50 per cent, while the 364-day bill dropped 73 basis points to 15.89 per cent from 16.62 per cent. The auction came a day after the CBN cut its Monetary Policy Rate from 26.50 per cent to 23 per cent, triggering a fresh repricing of short-term government securities. The latest rates represent a significant shift from the high-yield environment that characterised the Treasury bill market in July and August. The 91-day NTB’s stop rate fell by 80 basis points, the largest reduction among the three tenors. The bill cleared at 15.50 per cent, compared with 16.30 per cent at the previous auction. The DMO offered N100bn but received N54.93bn in subscriptions and allotted N11.03bn. The bill’s secondary-market rate stood at 17 per cent, leaving a 150-basis-point gap between the secondary-market rate and the latest auction stop rate. The 182-day NTB stop rate declined by 70 basis points to 15.80 per cent from 16.50 per cent. Investors submitted N82.23bn against the N100bn offered, while the DMO allotted N39.49bn. The secondary-market rate was 15.90 per cent, just 10 basis points above the auction stop rate. The one-year Treasury bill also recorded a sharp decline, with its stop rate falling 73 basis points to 15.89 per cent. Demand for the tenor remained particularly strong, with subscriptions reaching N4.09 trillion against an offer of N400bn. The DMO allotted N447.07bn, exceeding the advertised amount by N47.07bn. The latest rate extends the downward trend in the 364-day NTB. From a peak stop rate of 17.70 per cent on 8 July, the one-year bill has now fallen 181 basis points to 15.89 per cent. Its secondary-market rate stood at 15.60 per cent. The latest auction shows the speed at which the fixed-income market is adjusting to the CBN’s easing cycle. Across the three tenors, stop rates now range between 15.50 per cent and 15.89 per cent, significantly below the levels seen earlier in the third quarter. The three bills attracted combined subscriptions of N4.23tn against N600bn offered, with the 364-day tenor accounting for about 97 per cent of total demand. The sharp fall in stop rates means the government is now borrowing through Treasury bills at materially lower rates than it did earlier in the quarter, while investors are adjusting to a lower-yield environment following the CBN’s rate cut.

NGX WIDENS CAPITAL MARKET ACCESS VIA MESSAGING SERVICE

Nigerian Exchange Group Plc has expanded access to its NGX Invest platform with the launch of a dedicated WhatsApp subscription channel, providing retail and institutional investors with an additional pathway to participate in primary market public offers. Investors can initiate the subscription process by sending “Invest” to the designated NGX Invest contact number, following interactive prompts to view eligible offerings and complete necessary subscription steps directly within the messaging interface without requiring a separate application download. As part of the standardised workflow, investors select an accredited stockbroker through whom their application is formally processed, ensuring that dealing member firms remain an integral component of the transaction chain. The newly deployed channel expands NGX Invest’s broader distribution network, which connects issuers to market participants through more than 100 integrated access points, including stockbroking firms, commercial banks, financial technology operators, and mobile telecommunication providers via Application Programming Interface connectivity. By integrating WhatsApp into the primary market infrastructure, the exchange group aims to eliminate operational friction and enhance market penetration by delivering primary market instruments onto a platform investors already use every day. For corporate issuers, the integration offers an extended reach to deepen retail participation and optimise capital-raising exercises. The initiative forms part of NGX Group’s strategic execution to leverage financial technology, strategic partnerships, and open-market distribution networks to widen participation across the Nigerian capital market landscape. Security considerations remain central to the platform’s technical design. While WhatsApp serves as the front-end user interface, all underlying investment transactions are routed and processed through NGX Invest’s secure, regulated clearing and settlement infrastructure. Investors are advised to interact exclusively with the official verified number and are cautioned that they “should never share passwords, PINs, OTPs or other sensitive credentials with third parties.” The addition of the messaging interface comes amid accelerating digital participation across the domestic capital market, with the infrastructure provider emphasising that increased access must be “supported by secure, transparent and regulated market infrastructure.” NGX Invest operates as the Securities and Exchange Commission-approved electronic offering platform designed to facilitate public offers, rights issues, and initial public offerings within the domestic market. Since its operational deployment in 2024, the digital portal has facilitated over 23 primary market transactions and supported capital-raising activities valued at over N3tn across diverse corporate sectors.

CBN RATE CUT PUTS PRESSURE ON FIXED INCOME YIELDS

The Central Bank of Nigeria’s decision to cut its benchmark interest rate to 23 per cent is expected to put further downward pressure on yields across the fixed income market as investors adjust to a lower interest rate environment. The Monetary Policy Committee cut the Monetary Policy Rate by 350 basis points from 26.5 per cent at its 307th meeting in Abuja on Tuesday. The decision came against a backdrop of moderating inflation. Headline inflation fell to 15.39 per cent in August from 15.43 per cent in July, while food inflation declined to 19.57 per cent from 20.31 per cent. Month-on-month headline inflation also slowed to 0.71 per cent from 1.57 per cent. Fixed income yields had already begun declining before the MPC decision. At its latest Open Market Operations auction, the CBN offered N1tn of bills, attracting N6.31tn in subscriptions and allotting about N4.4tn. The 154-day OMO bill cleared at 18.41 per cent, while demand for the instrument reached N4.2tn against an offer of N400bn. The reduction in the MPR could reinforce the downward repricing of fixed income securities as investors adjust their return expectations to a lower policy rate environment. Treasury bills and OMO bills are likely to feel the impact first because their yields are more closely linked to short-term liquidity conditions and monetary policy. A sustained decline in short-term yields could also feed into the bond market, although the adjustment may be slower and depend on inflation expectations, liquidity and government borrowing needs. For investors, falling market yields have different implications depending on when the securities were purchased. Investors holding existing fixed income securities, particularly longer-duration bonds, could benefit from price appreciation if market yields decline further. This is because existing securities with higher coupons become more attractive relative to newly issued securities carrying lower yields, analysts say. However, investors deploying fresh funds could face lower returns if new Treasury bills, OMO bills and bonds are issued at lower rates. “If Treasury bill and OMO yields decline further, investors seeking higher returns may increase their allocation to equities, corporate debt and longer-dated securities,” said an Abuja-based economist, Chukwunonso Iheoma. “Investors who depend on short-term government securities for income could see returns fall as new instruments are issued at lower rates. “Holders of existing longer-duration bonds could benefit from price appreciation if market yields continue to decline.” The Federal Government could also benefit if the decline in domestic yields is sustained. Lower yields could reduce the cost of refinancing maturing domestic securities and make new domestic borrowing cheaper, Iheoma said. However, the impact on the government’s overall debt-service burden would take time because a large portion of existing debt was issued under previous interest-rate conditions. “The more immediate effect is likely to be visible in newly issued Treasury bills, OMO bills and other fixed-income instruments priced at prevailing market rates,” said a Lagos-based fixed-income analyst, Temitope Oduola. “The financial markets are likely to respond first through lower short-term yields.”

NIGERIA’S FX SUPPLY CLIMBS TO $8.94BN

Nigeria’s foreign exchange supply rose by 20.5 per cent to $8.94bn in 2025 from $7.43bn in 2024, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The figures are contained in the CBN’s 2025 Statistical Bulletin. The increase means Nigeria supplied about $1.51bn more in foreign exchange in 2025 than it did the previous year. Monthly data showed that FX supply was low at the start of the year before rising sharply in March and April. Supply stood at $590.64m in January and $607.63m in February. It then increased to $1.04bn in March and peaked at $1.65bn in April. Supply fell to $838.93m in May and $676.31m in June before rising to $759.02m in July. It stood at $677.84m in August and fell to $399.80m in September. October recorded the lowest supply of the year at $150.10m. Supply later recovered to $638.38m in November and $910.73m in December. The CBN also reported that total foreign exchange inflows into Nigeria increased to $109.86bn in 2025 from $96.53bn in 2024. This represents a 13.81 per cent increase. However, FX outflows also increased during the year, rising by 27.83 per cent to $49.05bn from $38.37bn. Nigeria therefore recorded a net FX inflow of $60.81bn in 2025, compared with $58.16bn in 2024. It must be noted that the CBN’s $8.94bn FX supply figure is different from the broader $109.86 billion inflow figure because the two datasets measure different aspects of foreign exchange activity. The CBN data also do not provide a detailed breakdown of the sources of the $8.94bn supplied during the year. Nigeria’s foreign exchange market remained volatile in 2026 despite the improvement in external liquidity.