CAPITALDIGEST DAILYNEWS, 20/04/2026

FUEL IMPORTS SURGE 97% DESPITE IMPROVED LOCAL SUPPLY

The importation of Premium Motor Spirit, also known as petrol, by oil marketers increased sharply in March 2026, surging by about 96.7 per cent compared to February, according to the latest data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority. Latest data from the regulator’s March 2026 fact sheet obtained by our correspondent on Tuesday showed that petrol import volumes climbed from 3.0 million litres per day in February to 5.9 million litres per day in March, reflecting renewed reliance on foreign supply amid shifting domestic dynamics. The report read, “Petrol import volumes rose significantly in March from 3.0 million litres per day in February to 5.9 million litres per day in March.” At the same time, the NMDPRA said local supply is gradually improving. This growth is being driven by domestic refiners, including the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which is quickly becoming a major player in the market.It said domestic petrol supply rose significantly from 30.5 million litres per day to 34.2 million litres per day, underscoring growing contributions from local refining capacity. Overall, total daily petrol supply increased marginally from 39.5 million litres to 40.1 million litres during the period under review. An analysis of the figures indicates that while imports nearly doubled within the month, domestic supply still accounted for the bulk of the market, reinforcing the increasing role of local refiners, particularly the Dangote refinery, as a stabilising force in Nigeria’s downstream sector. The refinery operated at an average capacity utilisation of 93.62 per cent in March 2026. Data on the refinery’s performance showed that it produced 48.2 million litres per day of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) during the period, out of which 34.2 million litres per day was supplied to the domestic market. This indicates that Dangote alone accounted for about 72.3 per cent of Nigeria’s total petrol consumption, estimated at 47.3 million litres per day in March, reinforcing its position as the single largest supplier of fuel in the country. In the diesel segment, the refinery produced 16.5 million litres per day of Automotive Gas Oil, with 2.2 million litres per day distributed locally, while the rest was either exported or held for other uses. The data also revealed a notable decline in petrol consumption, which dropped from 56.9 million litres per day in February to 47.3 million litres per day in March, suggesting weaker demand due to the high pricing of petroleum products during the period. Recall that the Dangote refinery increased its petrol price at least five times to N1,275 per litre in March. Similarly, petrol stock sufficiency fell sharply from 30.7 days to 21.2 days, indicating tighter inventory levels despite increased imports. The report also indicates growing concerns that the current days of petrol sufficiency may decline due to the limited number of import licences issued to marketers, raising fears of potential supply constraints. Stakeholders warn that Nigeria could face fuel shortages if stock levels are not improved and supply buffers are not strengthened in the coming weeks. This combination of rising imports, increasing domestic supply, and falling stock cover highlights ongoing adjustments in Nigeria’s fuel supply chain. The development comes against the backdrop of policy shifts by the NMDPRA regarding petrol import licences. Earlier, the regulator had restricted the issuance of new import licences in a bid to prioritise locally refined products and support investments in domestic refining, particularly following the commencement of operations at the Dangote refinery. However, the authority later reinstated the issuance of import licences to oil marketers, citing the need to prevent supply disruptions and ensure energy security during the transition phase. Further breakdown of the fact sheet showed that diesel (AGO) supply declined significantly from 24.4 million litres per day in February to 10.3 million litres per day in March, while LPG supply remained stable at 4.7 kilotonnes per day, with domestic contribution increasing. Domestic gas supply also rose slightly from 4.771 billion standard cubic feet per day to 4.888 bscf/d, reflecting steady growth in the gas segment. Commenting, oil marketers have called for liberalisation of the downstream sector, where other players with licences will be allowed to import more PMS, or petrol, into the country. National President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria, Billy Gillis-Harry, made his stance known while appearing as a guest on Channels Television’s The Morning Brief on Tuesday. According to him, healthy competition in the downstream sector will further protect the country from petrol price shocks following the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, which has affected the importation of petrol into the country.

INSURANCE SECTOR RECORDS N2.3TN PREMIUM IN Q4 2025

The Nigerian insurance industry has reached a watershed moment, recording N2.30tn in Gross Premium Written at the close of the fourth quarter of 2025. This figure represents a 47.3 per cent year-on-year growth, signalling a profound shift in the country’s financial landscape. According to the latest performance bulletin released by the National Insurance Commission, this growth underscores the “increasing relevance of the sector within Nigeria’s financial ecosystem and a deepening of public confidence in the market”. The industry’s stellar performance was largely anchored by the Non-Life segment, which contributed 68.4 per cent of the total premium pool. Within this powerhouse segment, the Oil & Gas business emerged as the dominant force, accounting for 30.3 per cent of all non-life premiums generated. “The unprecedented growth we are witnessing is a direct result of ongoing regulatory measures aimed at market deepening and the effectiveness of insurers’ pricing strategies,” NAICOM stated in the report. On the Life Insurance side, which accounted for 31.6 per cent of the market, Annuity funds took centre stage. Contributing 44.3 per cent of all premiums in the Life sector, annuities have officially surpassed Individual Life (36 per cent) and Group Life (19.5 per cent) as the primary growth engine for long-term insurance products. Despite the massive influx of premiums, the industry faced a significant rise in obligations. Gross claims rose to N724.7bn in Q4 2025, representing approximately 31.5 per cent of the total premiums written. Insurers demonstrated robust resilience in meeting these obligations. The Non-Life segment achieved a settlement rate of 75.5 per cent, while the Life segment settled 65.5 per cent of reported claims. “The motor insurance segment, in particular, recorded an outstanding settlement ratio of 88.5 per cent, reflecting a high level of underwriting quality and operational efficiency across the board,” the bulletin highlighted. Even in a challenging macroeconomic environment, the sector remained profitable, posting an overall market net loss ratio of 43.6 per cent. The industry’s financial position strengthened further, with total assets reaching N4.79tn, a 7.4 per cent expansion from the previous quarter. However, the report also pointed toward a high level of market concentration. The Research & Statistics Department of NAICOM noted that the top 10 life underwriters currently control nearly 90 per cent of their segment. While market concentration remains high, the overall outlook for the industry is strong and desirable, offering a favourable environment for investment and sustainable returns,” NAICOM maintained. As the industry undergoes a critical recapitalisation exercise, market watchers believe the sector is poised to further deepen insurance penetration, transforming from a peripheral player into a cornerstone of the Nigerian economy.

NGX GAINS N2.28TN ON BLUE-CHIP STOCK RALLY

The Nigerian equities market sustained its aggressive bullish trajectory on Wednesday as a surge in the prices of blue-chip stocks added N2.28tn to the total market capitalisation. The rally, which pushed the market’s total value across the N134tn threshold, was largely driven by institutional interest and positive investor sentiment following recent international index announcements. At the close of trading, the All-Share Index gained 3,486.03 points, representing a growth of 1.69 per cent to finish at 209,317.41 points, while market capitalisation closed at N134.772tn. “The market is expected to sustain its bullish momentum, underpinned by positive investor sentiment and the continued tailwind from the FTSE Russell series relisting announcement,” noted analysts at Cowry Assets Management Limited in their market outlook for the day. The day’s performance was significantly bolstered by gains in medium- and large-capitalised stocks. Major contributors to the upturn included Airtel Africa, Aradel Holdings, Stanbic IBTC Holdings, CAP, and MTN Nigeria Communications. Market breadth remained positive, with 38 advancers comfortably outpacing 36 decliners at the end of the session. Leading the gainers’ chart, Aradel Holdings and Airtel Africa both hit the maximum daily price cap, rising by 10 per cent to close at N1,406.90 and N2,746.70, respectively. They were closely followed by Ecobank Transnational Incorporated, which gained 9.98 per cent to close at N55.65 per share. “This is a very commendable performance that reinforces the strength of our primary market drivers. We are seeing a strategic repositioning by investors who are looking to capitalise on both the dividend yield prospects and the renewed international visibility of the Nigerian bourse,” a market operator remarked. The volume of activity also saw a significant uptick, with total units traded rising 24.08 per cent to 706.392 million units. These trades, valued at N41.876bn, were executed in 46,231 deals. Financial heavyweights dominated the activity chart, as Zenith Bank emerged as the most traded stock, with 73.288 million shares valued at N8.778bn. Other high-activity stocks included Tantalizer, United Bank for Africa, and Access Holdings, as investors continued to rotate capital into liquid assets. On the flip side, Austin Laz & Company led the losers, dropping 9.77 per cent to close at N3.60. Other laggards included John Holt, which shed 9.72 per cent, and CWG, which depreciated 7.22 per cent. Despite these losses, the overwhelming demand for heavyweight tickers ensured the market ended the day in deep green territory.

IMF CAUTIONS NIGERIA ON DEBT AS BORROWING CLIMBS

he International Monetary Fund has declined to endorse a preference for either external or domestic borrowing for Nigeria, stressing that the country’s rising debt profile requires a stronger focus on sustainability and repayment capacity. Speaking at a media briefing on the Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, Abebe Aemro Selassie, Director of the IMF’s African Department, stated that borrowing decisions should be guided by a broader assessment of debt sustainability rather than a fixed financing strategy. His comments come as Nigeria’s total public debt climbed to N159.28tn as of 31 December 2025, according to data from the Debt Management Office, reflecting a continued reliance on both domestic and external financing to bridge fiscal gaps. Selassie noted that the critical issue is not the source of borrowing, but whether debt levels remain manageable relative to the country’s capacity to service obligations without placing undue strain on public finances. “What is really important is to keep the level of debt as manageable as possible, relative to debt service capacity,” he said, adding that effective liability management, including extending debt maturities, can help ease near-term repayment pressures and improve fiscal stability over time. According to the IMF official, Nigeria possesses the institutional capacity to navigate its debt challenges, citing the technical strength of the DMO. Nigeria’s debt structure shows a growing domestic component. Domestic debt rose from N81.82tn in September 2025 to N84.85tn in December, while external debt stood at N74.43tn, accounting for 46.73 per cent of total public debt. Despite the tilt towards local borrowing, external obligations continue to exert pressure on foreign exchange; the country spent $5.21bn on external debt servicing in 2025, representing over 72 per cent of total international payments. Against this backdrop, Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, has called on multilateral institutions to reduce financing costs and expand access to liquidity for developing economies. Edun noted that lower-cost funding and improved risk management tools are critical to easing debt pressures, particularly as countries contend with rising borrowing costs and constrained access to concessional financing.

CBN INTRODUCES OVERNIGHT RATE TO DEEPEN MONEY MARKET

The Central Bank of Nigeria on Friday announced the introduction of the Nigerian Overnight Financing Rate as a new benchmark for the country’s money market, aimed at improving transparency and strengthening monetary policy transmission. The disclosure was contained in a press statement issued by the CBN’s Acting Director of Corporate Communications, Hakama Sidi-Ali. According to the statement, the initiative was developed in collaboration with the Financial Markets Dealers Association to deepen the financial system. “The Central Bank of Nigeria, in collaboration with the Financial Markets Dealers Association, today announced the introduction of the Nigerian Overnight Financing Rate, a standardised benchmark aimed at enhancing transparency, strengthening monetary policy transmission, and deepening Nigeria’s money market,” the statement partly read. The bank explained that the new rate aligns Nigeria with global standards for short-term interest rate benchmarks and is expected to improve pricing efficiency in the money market. “NOFR was developed to align Nigeria with global best practices in short-term interest rate benchmarks. It is expected to improve price discovery and transparency while promoting consistent pricing of money market instruments,” it added. The CBN noted that the benchmark would enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy, support financial innovation, boost investor confidence, and strengthen risk management across the financial system. It further stated that the introduction of NOFR positions Nigeria alongside global benchmarks such as SOFR in the United States, SONIA in the United Kingdom, €STR in the Eurozone, and TONA in Japan, while also complementing Africa’s JIBAR benchmark in South Africa. The apex bank disclosed that the benchmark was set following a stakeholder engagement held on February 27, 2026, during which market participants adopted the rate, along with regulatory approval. It added that the rate is now operational, with the CBN serving as the benchmark administrator responsible for governance, transparency, and regular publication. Following a stakeholder engagement session held on February 27, 2026, where market participants formally adopted the benchmark and subsequent regulatory approval, NOFR is now in use, with the CBN serving as the benchmark administrator. The Bank will ensure governance, transparency, and regular publication of the rate,” the statement noted. Additional details contained in a set of Frequently Asked Questions released alongside the press statement showed that the Nigerian Overnight Financing Rate is designed as a risk-free benchmark that reflects the cost of overnight secured funding in the interbank market, based strictly on actual transactions rather than estimates. The framework clarifies that the rate is not a monetary policy tool and is distinct from key policy indicators such as the Monetary Policy Rate, but instead serves as a reference point for pricing financial instruments and contracts across the system. The document further indicates that the benchmark is published daily at 10:00 a.m. on the next business day after transactions are recorded, reinforcing transparency and consistency in market pricing. For financial institutions, only naira-denominated overnight secured transactions in the interbank market that meet defined thresholds are eligible for inclusion, with the rate computed using a volume-weighted trimmed mean methodology to remove extreme values and ensure accuracy. It also states that in cases where there is insufficient transaction data, the previous day’s rate is retained and clearly disclosed, a safeguard aimed at maintaining continuity in the benchmark. The FAQs noted that while the new rate may serve as a reference for certain corporate and structured loans, it does not directly determine borrowing costs, which remain influenced by credit risk, tenor, and contractual terms agreed between lenders and borrowers. For investors, the rate is expected to play a key role in pricing, valuation, discounting, and risk management of naira-denominated financial instruments, further deepening activity in the domestic money market. Retail customers, however, will not see direct changes to savings or loan rates, as these continue to be determined by banks based on broader cost and risk considerations, although the improved transparency is expected to strengthen overall confidence in the financial system. On governance, the document states that any correction to the benchmark would only occur in cases of material error and must be fully disclosed, while the methodology underpinning the rate will be reviewed at least annually by the CBN to ensure it remains robust and aligned with market realities.