CAPITALDIGEST DAILYNEWS, 04/05/2026

OPEC+ HIKES OIL PRODUCTION QUOTAS, SILENT ON UAE PULL-OUT

Saudi Arabia, Russia and five other OPEC+ countries increased their oil production quota on Sunday in an expected move aimed at demonstrating continuity at the cartel after the shock withdrawal of the United Arab Emirates. The seven major producers will add 188,000 barrels per day to their total production quota for June amid the price pressure unleashed by the Mideast war, as part of “their collective commitment to support oil market stability”, according to a statement published by OPEC+. The statement, following an online meeting of Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Russia and Saudi Arabia, made no mention of the United Arab Emirates, which quit the body on Friday, three days after announcing its withdrawal. Rystad Energy analyst Jorge Leon told AFP that the silence on the UAE’s departure was a sign of tense relations. Oil market analysts had widely expected the increase of 188,000 barrels, similar to the 206,000-barrel daily increases OPEC+ announced in both March and April when the portion allotted to the UAE was subtracted. “By sticking to the same production path — just minus the UAE — it’s acting as if nothing has happened, deliberately downplaying internal fractures and projecting stability,” Leon said. But raising the quota on paper may not have much impact on actual production, which is already short of the limit. Untapped OPEC+ reserves are mainly located in the Gulf region, and exports there are trapped by the blockade of the vital Strait of Hormuz, imposed by Iran in response to the US-Israeli strikes that started the war on February 28. Leon, the Rystad Energy analyst, told AFP on Sunday that the cartel was looking to send “a two-layer message” that the UAE’s exit would not disrupt how OPEC+ operates and that the group still exerts control over global oil markets despite massive disruption to oil trade due to the war. “While output is increasing on paper, the real impact on physical supply remains very limited given the Strait of Hormuz constraints,” Leon told AFP. “This is less about adding barrels and more about signalling that OPEC+ still calls the shots.” The Strait of Hormuz blockade is hitting Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The latter’s production will no longer count towards OPEC quotas. “Total OPEC+ output with quota fell to 27.68 million bpd in March, against a monthly quota of 36.73 million bpd, a shortfall of approximately 9 million bpd driven almost entirely by war-related disruption rather than voluntary restraint,” said Priya Walia, another analyst at Rystad Energy, ahead of Sunday’s meeting. Iran, whose exports are now the target of a retaliatory US blockade, is an OPEC+ member but is not subject to quotas. Russia, the group’s second-biggest producer, has been the main beneficiary of the situation. But despite soaring energy prices, it appears to be struggling to produce at the level of its current quotas as its own war in Ukraine drags on and Ukrainian drones hit oil industry facilities.

INVESTORS GAIN N3.2TN AS BULLS DOMINATE NGX

Investors gained N3.26tn at the close of trading on Thursday as the Nigerian equities market extended its bullish run, driven by sustained buying interest in large-cap and consumer-linked stocks. Market capitalisation, which represents the total value of listed shares, opened the session at N152.728tn and rose significantly to close at N155.994tn, reflecting a robust renewal of investor appetite. This upward momentum was further mirrored in the All-Share Index, which advanced from an opening of 237,205.59 to close at 242,277.81. The day’s performance was characterised by positive market breadth, with 46 gainers emerging against 40 losers, highlighting the dominance of the bulls across several key sectors. Leading the pack of gainers were major blue-chip companies, including CAP, FTN Cocoa, UACN, Unilever, and Seplat, all of which appreciated by the maximum daily limit of 10.00 per cent. Specifically, Seplat recorded a massive rally to close at N11,495.00, while Unilever and UACN climbed to N137.50 and N181.50, respectively. Conversely, the market recorded some laggards led by Alex, which declined by 9.95 per cent to close at N9.50, followed by Royal Exchange and Legend Identity, which shed 9.93 per cent and 9.32 per cent, respectively. Other stocks, such as Austin Laz and Neimeth, also featured on the losers’ chart as some investors engaged in profit-taking to moderate the general market advance. Meanwhile, heavyweight counters like Dangote Cement, Julius Berger, and Custodian Investment remained flat, closing the session with no price change. Investor sentiment remained broadly positive throughout the day as market participants strategically positioned themselves ahead of upcoming corporate disclosures and anticipated macroeconomic shifts.

NGX REVENUE JUMPS AS TRADING ACTIVITY BOOSTS EARNINGS

Nigerian Exchange Group Plc said first-quarter revenue more than doubled as increased trading activity and stronger investment income boosted earnings at Nigeria’s bourse operator. Revenue climbed 103 per cent to N7.22bn in the three months ended March 31, from N3.56bn a year earlier, according to the company’s unaudited financial statements. NGX Group makes money from operating Nigeria’s stock exchange and related capital market businesses. Every time investors buy or sell shares, bonds or other securities on the exchange, NGX earns fees from brokers and market participants. According to the report available on its website, profit after tax rose 94 per cent to N4.09bn, while pretax profit advanced to N5.98bn from N2.49bn in the corresponding period of 2025. The exchange operator’s total income increased to N7.8bn from N4.58bn, supported by a jump in income from equity-accounted investees, which rose to N2.03bn from N593.6m. Operating profit climbed to N3.95bn, compared with N2.15bn a year earlier. The stronger earnings came despite a rise in costs. Personnel expenses increased by about 51 per cent to N1.85bn, while other operating expenses rose 67 per cent to N1.8bn. Nigeria’s equities market has seen renewed investor activity in recent months as domestic institutional investors increased participation amid easing foreign-exchange volatility and expectations of improved macroeconomic stability. A key pillar of the reforms was the signing of the Investment and Securities Act 2025 on March 31 last year, replacing the 2007 legislation and expanding the powers of the Securities and Exchange Commission over digital assets, commodities trading and derivatives markets. The law also introduced tougher penalties for Ponzi schemes, including fines of up to N20m and prison terms of as much as 10 years, while granting tax exemptions for collective investment schemes as Nigeria seeks closer alignment with International Organisation of Securities Commissions standards. Tinubu also reconstituted the SEC board in April 2024, appointing Mairiga Aliyu Katuka as chairman and Emomotimi Agama as director-general in a move aimed at tightening market oversight and deepening investor confidence. The reforms have coincided with stronger activity on the Nigerian Exchange, which crossed a market capitalisation milestone of N100tn in January 2026. Banking sector reforms have also supported market activity. The Central Bank of Nigeria in March 2024 directed lenders to raise fresh capital by March 2026, requiring international banks to maintain minimum capital of N500bn and national banks N200bn. By the March 2026 deadline, most banks had completed recapitalisation exercises that collectively raised more than N4tn from domestic and foreign investors, helping to drive liquidity into the equities market. Tinubu’s broader economic measures, including foreign-exchange liberalisation, subsidy removal and fiscal reforms introduced since 2023, have also helped stabilise the naira and improve investor sentiment after an extended period of volatility.

NIGERIA’S DOLLAR GDP JUMPS 22% TO $307BN –REPORT

Nigeria’s dollar GDP rose by 22 per cent to about $307bn in 2025, driven by stronger economic output and a firmer naira, according to a report by Quartus Economics. “In 2025, Nigeria’s dollar GDP expanded 22 per cent. This comprises an 18.43 per cent growth in nominal GDP and a three per cent appreciation of the naira,” the report stated. The report, titled Nigeria on the Rise Again, noted that the country’s gross domestic product measured in dollars increased from about $252bn in 2024 to $307.5bn in 2025, reflecting a recovery from earlier declines and placing the economy back above the $300bn mark. It explained that the improvement was supported by both domestic output expansion and exchange rate movements, with nominal GDP rising from N372.8tn in 2024 to N441.5tn in 2025. Within the same period, the average exchange rate appreciated from N1,479/$ to N1,436/$, contributing about three percentage points to the overall dollar GDP growth. According to the report, the appreciation of the naira was calculated based on the increase in the dollar value of one million naira from $676.13 in 2024 to $696.38 in 2025, representing a gain of about 3 per cent. The analysis showed that Nigeria’s performance exceeded the Sub-Saharan Africa average dollar GDP growth of 10.33 per cent and outpaced several major African economies, including South Africa, Egypt, Algeria, Kenya, Senegal, Cote d’Ivoire, Tanzania, Morocco and Angola, with only Ghana recording stronger growth at 37.7 per cent. It added that Nigeria accounted for nearly 28 per cent of Africa’s total GDP growth in dollar terms in 2025, making it a major contributor to the continent’s expansion. Beyond Africa, the report stated that Nigeria’s dollar GDP growth exceeded that of several emerging economies such as Bangladesh, Indonesia, Turkey, Thailand, and Mexico during the review period. The report also showed that Nigeria’s share of Africa’s GDP increased to about 14.43 per cent in 2025 from roughly 13.05 per cent in 2024, indicating a gradual improvement in its relative economic position on the continent. On income levels, the report noted that GDP per capita rose by 19.5 per cent to $1,295 in 2025 from $1,083 in 2024, as economic growth outpaced population expansion. It stated, “Despite a population growth of 2.1 per cent, which implied the country added 4.8 million people during the year, the country’s GDP per capita still grew 19.5 per cent in $ terms.” The report highlighted that the increase in per capita income exceeded the Sub-Saharan Africa average of about 7.7 per cent and also surpassed growth levels in countries such as South Africa, Egypt, Algeria, and Morocco, although Ghana recorded a contrasting decline in per capita terms. It further noted that Nigeria’s per capita GDP, while still below that of many peer economies, improved relative to regional and global benchmarks. For instance, Nigeria’s per capita income rose to about 72.8 per cent of the Sub-Saharan Africa average in 2025, up from 65.7 percent in 2024. Similarly, the country’s per capita GDP as a share of the average for 12 major African economies increased to over 40 per cent, while its proportion relative to selected developing economies rose to nearly 30 per cent. The report attributed the improvement in both GDP and per capita income to a combination of factors, including currency stability, steady production growth, and moderating population expansion.

NIGERIA’S DEBT TO WORLD BANK SURGED BY $2.08BN IN 2025

Nigeria’s debt to the World Bank rose by $2.08bn in one year to $19.89bn as of December 31, 2025, according to an analysis of external debt stock data released by the Debt Management Office. The figure represents an 11.7 per cent increase from the $17.81bn owed to the global lender as of December 31, 2024. The World Bank debt comprises loans from the International Development Association and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. IDA provides concessional grants and loans to low-income countries, while IBRD provides financial products and policy advice mainly to middle-income and creditworthy developing countries. DMO data showed that Nigeria’s IDA debt rose from $16.56bn in 2024 to $18.51bn in 2025, an increase of $1.94bn or 11.73 per cent. IBRD exposure also increased from $1.24bn to $1.38bn, representing an increase of $141.84m or 11.41 per cent. The increase means World Bank loans accounted for 38.36 per cent of Nigeria’s total external debt stock of $51.86bn as of the end of 2025. This was slightly lower than the 38.90 per cent share recorded in 2024, when total external debt stood at $45.78bn. Saturday PUNCH observed that although the World Bank remained Nigeria’s single largest external creditor group, its share of total external debt declined marginally because other debt categories grew faster, especially commercial and syndicated project loans. The country’s total external debt rose by $6.08bn, or 13.27 per cent, from $45.78bn in 2024 to $51.86bn in 2025. The World Bank accounted for about 34.3 per cent of that increase, making it one of the major contributors to the country’s external debt growth during the year. However, the largest jump came from commercial/project-related obligations, which rose mainly due to syndicated project loans, while Eurobond debt also increased from $17.32bn to $18.55bn. Multilateral debt as a whole rose from $22.32bn to $23.85bn, while bilateral debt rose from $6.09bn to $6.72bn. The data indicate that Nigeria’s external borrowing profile remains heavily tilted towards multilateral lenders, with the World Bank alone accounting for more than four-fifths of the multilateral debt stock in 2025. This reflects the Federal Government’s continued reliance on concessional and semi-concessional financing, especially from IDA, amid tight fiscal conditions, high debt-service costs and limited access to cheaper market-based funding. Economists warn that the rising loan pipeline, while potentially beneficial for long-term development, could deepen fiscal pressures if not matched with stronger domestic revenue mobilisation and prudent expenditure management.