CAPITALDIGEST DAILYNEWS, 09/03/2026

FUEL PRICE SPIKE TRIGGERS FRESH NAIRA-FOR-CRUDE SUPPLY CALLS

Petrol prices rose to N937 per litre on Tuesday amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, prompting oil marketers and refinery operators to urge the Federal Government to provide more crude oil to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in naira to help stabilise domestic fuel prices. The PUNCH reported on Monday that the Dangote refinery increased its gantry price from N774 to N874. The adjustment followed a jump in oil prices to $84 per barrel, up from below $70 days before the airstrikes involving the United States, Iran, Israel, and other countries. “The new gantry price is now N874 per litre from N774. The review became necessary due to changes in global crude fundamentals and replacement costs,” an official of the Dangote refinery said. Following the increment, filling stations on Tuesday raised their pump prices to N937 or N935, depending on the location. A survey by our correspondents confirmed that an MRS filling station in Obalende, Lagos, sold petrol at N937 on Tuesday. The MRS and Petrocam stations in Mowe, Ogun State, dispensed petrol at N935, while Heyden offered N930. Similarly, SAO, SGR, and AP sold the product at N925. Matrix also dispensed the fuel at N937. Before the Middle East crisis, some filling stations had already been selling premium motor spirit at prices ranging between N812 and N839, depending on the location. However, the crisis over the weekend disrupted the global fuel market, affecting Nigeria and other countries. Reacting in a statement on Tuesday, the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria emphasised the urgent need to consolidate and strengthen Nigeria’s domestic refineries, particularly the Dangote refinery, through the provision of adequate and consistent crude oil supply in naira. According to PETROAN’s spokesperson, Joseph Obele, this “proactive approach” is essential to minimising the impact of external geopolitical shocks on the nation’s petroleum market. The National President of PETROAN, Billy Gillis-Harry, expressed deep concern over the ongoing military escalation involving the United States, Iran, Israel, and allied nations, and its far-reaching implications for the global energy industry, particularly Nigeria’s petroleum sector. According to him, recent geopolitical tensions have significantly disrupted global energy markets and supply chains. PETROAN noted that hostilities in the Middle East, especially around the strategic Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20 per cent of the world’s crude oil supply passes daily, have triggered sharp volatility in international oil prices and heightened uncertainty regarding supply continuity. It added that as the conflict intensified, global crude oil benchmarks had surged, with analysts projecting that prices could exceed $100 per barrel if disruptions persist, noting that the upward trend reflected growing concerns over potential supply shortages should shipping activities through the Strait of Hormuz remain restricted. PETROAN stated that any sustained increase in crude oil prices would inevitably be reflected at petroleum retail outlets across Nigeria. “If the crisis continues, the impact will extend beyond pump prices to affect foreign exchange stability, domestic fuel pricing structures, and overall inflation levels within the country,” Gillis-Harry warned. The association urged the Federal Government to encourage and prioritise local refineries by ensuring a steady crude oil supply in naira, particularly to the Dangote refinery, and by creating enabling policies that support optimal operations. PETROAN also called on the government to sustain and strengthen the Naira-for-Crude policy to reduce pressure on foreign exchange and stabilise domestic fuel pricing. “In view of these developments, PETROAN calls for urgent and strategic actions to safeguard Nigeria’s energy security: encourage and prioritise local refineries by ensuring a steady crude oil supply in naira, particularly to the Dangote refinery, and create enabling policies that support optimal operations. Sustain and strengthen the Naira-for-Crude policy to reduce pressure on foreign exchange and stabilise domestic fuel pricing. “Urgently revamp the four government-owned refineries to restore them to full operational capacity and reduce dependence on imported petroleum products. Monitor global market developments and respond proactively to emerging risks. Advocate policies that strengthen domestic refining capacity and reduce reliance on imports. Support measures aimed at shielding consumers from excessive fuel price shocks,” the statement stated. In the same vein, the Crude Oil Refineries Association of Nigeria urged the Federal Government to expand and deepen the Naira-for-Crude policy, including providing more crude in naira to the Dangote refinery and modular refineries across the country to stabilise fuel prices. CORAN spokesperson, Eche Idoko, made the appeal against the backdrop of escalating global crude oil prices triggered by ongoing tensions in the Middle East, which have directly impacted the domestic price of diesel. According to Idoko, diesel remains one of the most critical fuels driving Nigeria’s economy, powering factories, farms, construction sites, telecommunications infrastructure, and small and medium-scale enterprises. “While the current Naira-for-Crude policy has provided some relief within the downstream sector, its limited coverage has constrained its full economic impact. Expanding the initiative and ensuring adequate crude supply in naira to key refineries, including the Dangote refinery and modular operators such as Aradel Holdings Plc, OPAC Refinery, Walter Smith Refinery, and Edo Refinery and Petrochemicals Company, would significantly boost local refining output, particularly AGO production.

CBN REFORMS PUSH NAIRA TO 13-YEAR ANNUAL GAIN– REPORT

Investment house Comercio Partners has said that the year 2025 proved to be a transformative year for the naira, as it marked its first annual appreciation in 13 years, with the currency strengthening by approximately 6.87 per cent against the United States dollar. The experts, in their 2026 economic outlook titled ‘Policy Shock to Structural Reset: Charting a Sustainable Economic Path’, said Nigeria’s economy is transitioning out of volatility. This period of turbulence was triggered by successive reforms and significant near-term adjustment costs. The naira started the year at around N1,541/$ in official markets and closed at about N1,435/$ on 31 December 2025, narrowing the premium between the official and parallel markets. Comercio Partners said that the turnaround was underpinned by deliberate Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) measures, including the launch of the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Code to promote transparency and the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System for more efficient interbank trading. This performance reversed a long trend of chronic depreciation driven by structural imbalances. Instead, it delivered stability amid improved foreign-exchange liquidity, rising external reserves (up by over 11 per cent to bolster buffers), and renewed investor confidence. Several deliberate policy measures orchestrated by the CBN underpinned this turnaround. Building on the foundational unification and liberalisation reforms initiated in 2023–2024, the bank deepened market-driven mechanisms throughout 2025. A cornerstone action came early in the year, on 28 January, when the CBN formally launched the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Code, adapting global best practices to promote transparency, accountability, and ethical conduct among banks, dealers, and participants, thereby reducing manipulation and enhancing trust in the system,” read part of the report. The experts added that “These reforms attracted substantial capital inflows, reaching nearly $21bn in the first ten months alone, a 70 per cent surge from 2024, bolstered by higher remittances, portfolio investments, and oil-related earnings, while domestic refining capacity eased import pressures. “ The result manifested in sustained naira firmness, with the currency posting gains throughout much of the year, supported by a strengthening current account and ample external reserves. As we enter 2026, early indications show continued stability, with the naira opening around N1,430/$, assuming reforms persist and global conditions remain supportive. Overall, these actions shifted Nigeria’s FX landscape from fragility to resilience, laying a foundation for broader economic recovery.” Parallel to the currency’s recovery, Comercio Partners said that Nigeria’s inflation narrative in 2025 changed character, moving from a cycle driven by discrete shocks to one shaped by policy restraint and supply adjustments. The inflection point came in January 2025 with the rebasing of the Consumer Price Index by the National Bureau of Statistics. The reference year moved from 2009 to 2024, and the consumption basket and weights were revised. “This adjustment reset the inflation series. Headline inflation dropped from 34.8 per cent on the old base to 24.48 per cent on the new base. The decline reflected measurement changes rather than an immediate price decline. Still, it altered the inflation profile by reducing apparent volatility, especially in food, and by placing greater weight on services and other non-food components.” Highlighting the connection between inflation and exchange rate, the experts said that “after severe volatility in 2023 and 2024, driven by FX shortages, multiple exchange rate windows, and policy uncertainty, the naira stabilised in 2025. FX market unification and improved liquidity narrowed the gap between official and parallel rates, thereby reducing speculative pressure. This stability limited imported inflation and reduced the need for frequent price adjustments, particularly for food and imported inputs.” Regarding this year’s inflation forecast, the investment firm stated, “The inflation outlook for H1 ‘26 is asymmetric, with downside risks vulnerable to policy, FX, and supply shocks. Inflation in the first half of the year is expected to remain on a disinflationary path, but at a slower, less linear pace than in late 2025. Food supply dynamics, FX stability, and the timing of monetary policy adjustments will shape the trajectory.” In a base-case scenario, headline inflation is projected to settle in the 14–16 per cent range, provided there is policy continuity, gradual monetary easing, and a broadly stable FX market. The best-case scenario places headline inflation at 10–11 per cent. This outcome requires sustained FX stability, disciplined policy coordination, and a strong agricultural cycle. For the worst-case scenario, inflation is seen re-accelerating to 18–22 per cent if there is policy slippage and renewed FX stress.

30 BANKS MET RECAPITALISATION AHEAD OF MARCH DEADLINE – CBN

Thirty banks have met the new minimum capital requirements introduced under the Central Bank of Nigeria’s banking sector recapitalisation programme, the apex bank disclosed on Friday. The CBN said the recapitalisation exercise, launched in 2024 to strengthen the resilience and capacity of the financial system, had continued to record steady progress across the industry. In a statement by the Acting Director of Corporate Communications at the CBN, Hakama Sidi-Ali, on Friday, the central bank noted that several lenders had successfully strengthened their capital base through different fundraising channels, including rights issues, initial public offerings and private placements. The statement read, “As of March 6, 2026, the recapitalisation exercise is progressing steadily. Thirty (30) banks have met the new minimum capital requirements applicable to their respective licence authorisations. In total, thirty-three (33) banks have raised additional capital through rights issues, initial public offerings, and private placements as part of the programme.” The apex bank explained that the capital positions of the remaining banks were currently undergoing routine verification before final confirmation of compliance within the stipulated timeline for the recapitalisation exercise. According to the regulator, the verification process forms part of its supervisory role aimed at ensuring that the capital raised by banks aligns with regulatory standards and prudential requirements. “The capital positions of the remaining banks are currently undergoing the Central Bank’s routine verification process ahead of final confirmation of compliance within the recapitalisation timeline,” the statement added. The CBN introduced the recapitalisation programme in 2024 as part of efforts to strengthen the resilience, stability and long-term capacity of Nigeria’s banking system to support economic development. Under the programme, banks were required to raise fresh capital to meet revised minimum thresholds based on the category of their operating licences. The move also came amid broader financial sector reforms aimed at improving investor confidence and ensuring that financial institutions maintain adequate buffers to absorb potential risks. Since the policy was announced, many banks have approached the capital market to raise fresh funds through public offers, rights issues and private placements. Several lenders have also undertaken corporate restructuring and strategic capital raising exercises to meet the regulatory benchmarks within the deadline set by the apex bank. The CBN, however, reiterated that the banking system remained stable and sound despite ongoing capital adjustments by financial institutions. It stated, “The CBN reiterates that the Nigerian banking system remains stable and sound. The recapitalisation programme remains firmly on track and will further strengthen the capacity of the banking sector to support households, businesses, and sustainable economic growth.” The apex bank further assured stakeholders that it would continue to maintain close supervisory engagement with regulated institutions throughout the process. “The Central Bank of Nigeria will continue to maintain close supervisory engagement with regulated institutions to ensure full compliance with prudential and capital requirements,” the statement added. The CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, earlier disclosed that banks raised N4.05tn in verified and approved capital ahead of the March 31, 2026, recapitalisation deadline set by the CBN.

NIGERIANS REPAID N1.33TN PERSONAL LOANS IN ONE YEAR – CBN

Nigerians repaid about N1.33tn in personal loans within one year as outstanding household borrowing declined sharply between November 2024 and November 2025, data from the Central Bank of Nigeria has shown. Figures contained in the CBN Economic Report for November 2025 indicated that personal loan balances fell from N3.32tn in November 2024 to N1.99tn in November 2025, reflecting a significant drop in consumer borrowing during the period. The sharp decline in personal lending drove a broader contraction in consumer credit across the banking system. Further analysis of the report showed that total consumer credit outstanding fell from N4.42tn in November 2024 to N3.19tn in November 2025, signalling weaker household borrowing conditions. The apex bank attributed the decline to reduced activity in both personal and retail lending. According to the report, “Consumer credit outstanding declined by 13.32 per cent to N3.19tn, from N3.68tn in the preceding month. The decrease was owing to contraction in both retail and personal lending.” Despite the decline, personal loans remained the largest component of consumer credit in the economy. The CBN said personal loans accounted for 62.38 per cent of total consumer credit at N1.99tn, while retail loans represented 37.62 per cent valued at N1.20tn. While personal loan balances dropped, retail lending recorded a modest increase during the same period. Retail loans rose from N1.11tn in November 2024 to N1.20tn in November 2025, representing an increase of about N90bn year-on-year. However, the rise in retail lending was not sufficient to offset the sharp decline in personal loans, resulting in the overall drop in consumer credit. The development reflects changing credit conditions in Nigeria’s financial system during the review period as households adjusted borrowing behaviour amid elevated interest rates and tight monetary policy. Throughout most of 2025, the CBN maintained an aggressive anti-inflation stance by keeping borrowing costs high. The Monetary Policy Committee retained the Monetary Policy Rate at 27.5 per cent for much of 2025, before reducing it by 50 basis points to 27 per cent in September 2025, the first rate cut since 2020. The committee subsequently retained the MPR at 27 per cent in November 2025, signalling continued caution despite easing inflationary pressures. High interest rates typically discourage fresh borrowing while encouraging repayment of existing loans, particularly among households and small borrowers. The data also indicated a shift in the structure of consumer borrowing. Although personal loans remained dominant, their share declined relative to earlier periods as households reduced exposure to unsecured borrowing. Retail lending, which is often linked to smaller consumer purchases and short-term financing, showed moderate growth. The Monetary Policy Committee of the CBN in February 2025 reduced the benchmark interest rate to 26.5 per cent, citing sustained disinflation, exchange rate stability, and improved external reserves. The CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, announced the decision at the end of the committee’s 304th meeting in Abuja, where all 11 members were in attendance. Cardoso said, “The committee decided to reduce the monetary policy rate by 50 basis points to 26.5 per cent.”

CRC UNVEILS APP TO EXPAND FINANCIAL SERVICES ACCESS

A leading credit bureau and financial data institution in Nigeria and Africa, CRC Credit Bureau, has launched an upgraded CRC mobile app designed to give customers seamless access to their credit information and essential financial services on one platform. During the recent launch, the organisation said the enhanced application forms part of its push to redefine digital credit management while expanding financial accessibility for individuals and businesses across Nigeria. According to the firm, the upgraded mobile application introduces new features aimed at strengthening security, improving customer experience, and expanding digital service offerings. Among the new features is biometric login functionality that allows users to securely access their accounts using fingerprint authentication and Face ID. The company said the enhancement enables faster login while maintaining strict data protection standards and strengthening overall platform security. The mobile app also features an integrated wallet system that enables users to top up their wallet balance for transactions within the application, a development expected to streamline payments and reduce transaction friction. The wallet functionality, it was learnt, also includes a show-and-hide balance option designed to give users greater privacy and control over their financial information when using the application in public or shared environments. It was stated that the upgraded application further expands CRC’s digital services by enabling users to conveniently purchase utility services, including electricity payments, airtime, mobile data, and cable television subscriptions such as DSTV, GOtv, StarTimes, and Showmax. The integration reportedly positions the CRC mobile app as a multifunctional digital platform capable of supporting everyday financial transactions within a secure ecosystem. As part of its financial literacy drive, the company said the mobile application now allows users to register directly for CRC training courses, simplifying access to educational programmes aimed at strengthening financial capacity in the market. Speaking at the launch, the Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of CRC Credit Bureau, Dr ’Tunde Popoola, said the development reflected the organisation’s broader digital transformation strategy. He said, “The new mobile app reflects the organisation’s broader digital transformation strategy and its commitment to delivering innovative solutions that empower customers. The upgraded app is designed to place greater control in the hands of customers while maintaining the highest standards of security and operational excellence.” Popoola added that the company would continue to invest in technology to deepen trust and transparency within the financial services sector. “CRC remains committed to investing in technology that enhances transparency, improves accessibility, and strengthens trust within Nigeria’s financial services ecosystem,” he stated, adding that the initiative aligns with CRC’s long-standing mission of strengthening trust in the country’s financial system. Popoola added that the organisation’s mission is to strengthen confidence in Nigeria’s financial ecosystem by providing reliable credit information and accessible financial tools. “At CRC, our mission has always been clear: to strengthen trust in Nigeria’s financial system by providing reliable credit information, innovative solutions, and accessible financial tools that empower individuals and businesses to make informed decisions. Today’s event marks another important step in that journey,” Popoola explained. He said the launch represented more than a technology upgrade, but a strategic investment in improving customer experience and expanding access to financial services. Explaining the design focus of the platform, Popoola said the company sought to build a secure and multifunctional digital tool capable of meeting evolving customer needs. He noted that the application incorporates biometric login capability to ensure both convenience and stronger data protection. Popoola further said the application now allows users to access additional services beyond credit reporting. “Beyond credit services, the CRC Mobile App now allows users to conveniently pay utility bills, purchase airtime and data, and subscribe to cable television services such as DSTV, GOtv, StarTimes, and Showmax. By integrating these services into one secure platform, we are creating a more comprehensive digital ecosystem for our users,” he added The PUNCH observed that this figure was nearly double the N2.4tn reportedly raised as of April 2025. Cardoso said N2.90tn of the amount, representing 71.6 per cent, was mobilised domestically, while N1.15tn, equivalent to 28.33 per cent, came from foreign participation. “In summary, 71.67 per cent is domestic mobilisation and 28.33 per cent is foreign participation. This balance, in my view, represents a mix of domestic and foreign, which signals broad investor engagement and confidence in the sector,” Cardoso said.