CAPITALDIGEST DAILYNEWS, 02/03/2026

NIGERIA COMMANDS 52% OF AFRICA’S US CRUDE EXPORTS

Nigeria accounted for about 52 per cent of Africa’s crude oil exports to the United States in 2025, according to the latest data from the US Census Bureau. Figures from the US International Trade in Goods and Services report indicate that total US crude imports from Africa stood at 89.371 million barrels in 2025, down from 103.631 million barrels in 2024, representing a decline of 14.26 million barrels or 13.8 per cent. Out of the 89.371 million barrels imported from Africa in 2025, Nigeria supplied 46.618 million barrels, compared to 50.793 million barrels in 2024. This reflects a drop of 4.175 million barrels or 8.2 per cent year on year. Despite the lower volume, Nigeria’s share of Africa’s crude exports to the US rose. In 2025, Nigeria’s 46.618 million barrels accounted for 52.2 per cent of Africa’s total shipments, up from 49.0 per cent in 2024, when it exported 50.793 million barrels out of the continent’s 103.631 million barrels. In value terms, Africa’s crude exports to the US, measured using the C.I.F. value, declined sharply. The continent’s total C.I.F. value fell from $8.945bn in 2024 to $6.816bn in 2025, indicating a drop of $2.129bn or 23.8 per cent. Nigeria’s C.I.F. value decreased from $4.458bn in 2024 to $3.545bn in 2025, translating to a reduction of $913m or 20.5 per cent. Even so, Nigeria’s share of Africa’s total C.I.F. crude exports to the US edged up to 52.0 per cent in 2025 from 49.8 per cent in 2024. The customs value, which excludes freight and insurance costs and reflects the price paid for the crude before shipment, also recorded a decline. Africa’s customs value fell from $8.767bn in 2024 to $6.653bn in 2025, a decrease of $2.114bn or 24.1 per cent. Nigeria’s customs value dropped from $4.365bn in 2024 to $3.451bn in 2025, representing a fall of $914m or 20.9 per cent. The difference between customs value and C.I.F. value lies in the inclusion of logistics costs. While customs value captures the transaction price at export, C.I.F. reflects the landed value at US ports, including freight and insurance. In both years, the gap between Nigeria’s customs and C.I.F. values remained relatively stable, suggesting that freight costs did not materially alter the overall trend. A breakdown of other African suppliers shows that Angola’s crude exports to the US dropped from 18.497 million barrels in 2024 to 8.891 million barrels in 2025, while Ghana’s exports fell from 9.019 million barrels to 3.804 million barrels. Libya was the only major African supplier to record a marginal increase in volume, rising from 16.993 million barrels in 2024 to 17.761 million barrels in 2025. The data show that Nigeria strengthened its dominance in the US market among African producers in 2025, not because volumes increased, but because other suppliers recorded steeper declines. The trade outcomes come against the backdrop of renewed US protectionist rhetoric and tariff-focused trade policies associated with US President Donald Trump, which have influenced sourcing decisions, pricing structures, and trade flows globally. Last year, Donald Trump signed an executive order raising Nigeria’s tariff rate from 14 per cent to 15 per cent, with Washington implementing its “reciprocal” tariff regime. The order, issued in late July, took effect on August 7, 2025. Although crude oil has been exempted in several cases, the higher duty applies directly to a wide range of non-oil Nigerian exports, creating uncertainty for American importers and dampening demand ahead of and after the effective date. With crude oil exports largely exempted from the new tariff regime, non-oil exports appear to have borne the brunt of the disruption. A renowned economist and Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, downplayed the impact of the U.S. tariffs on Nigeria. “Our trade with the US is not that strategic. When anything goes wrong, it is not as if it can have any fundamental effect on our economy. Our trade exposure to them is very limited,” Yusuf explained. He noted that Nigerian exports to the US are dominated by crude oil and a handful of other commodities, such as fertilisers, making the country’s trade profile narrow and underdeveloped in non-oil areas. Yusuf added that Nigeria’s tariff exposure is relatively moderate compared with other countries. However, he identified another challenge beyond tariffs: US visa policy. “The bigger challenge for Nigeria’s trade relationship with the US is Washington’s visa policy. Barriers to travel limit business interactions and investment inflows. That is more critical than tariffs in the long run,” he said. Since its inception, the Trump administration has steadily rolled out a series of visa restrictions and travel bans targeting Nigeria and several other countries.

NGX: SELL PRESSURE WIPES N514BN OFF INVESTORS’ WEALTH

Trading on Thursday closed on a bearish note as equities on the Nigerian bourse extended their downward trajectory, reflecting cautious investor sentiment and persistent profit-taking across key sectors. Official data from the Daily Official List shows the All-Share Index slipped to 193,567.81, while market capitalisation moderated to N124.24tn, shaving N514bn from investors’ value. The PUNCH reports that analysts have projected a mixed market performance as participants in the market engage in profit-taking and reposition their portfolios in the earnings season. Sectoral performance revealed mixed but predominantly negative movements. The consumer goods sector recorded marginal weakness as investors trimmed positions in bellwether counters. Industrial stocks posted the steepest decline among tracked sectors, pressured by selling in heavyweight manufacturing names. The banking index also retreated amid profit-taking after earlier gains this week, while Insurance equities continued to trade soft, reflecting subdued liquidity. Conversely, the oil and gas sector bucked the broader market trend, posting a modest uptick of 0.12 per cent, supported by selective buying interest. Expectedly, market breadth was bearish, with 38 declining stocks outpacing 30 advancing counters. FTN Cocoa (+10 per cent), RT Briscoe (+9.95 per cent), DEAPCAP (+9.92 per cent), JapaulGold (+9.91 per cent), and Ellahlakes (+9.72 per cent) led the gainers, while Jaiz Bank (-9.98 per cent), Ikeja Hotel and John Holt (-9.90 per cent), Enamelware’s shares dipped 9.98 per cent, and Cadbury’s shares ended up also declining 9.69 per cent. Compared to the previous day, trading activity weakened across metrics as share volume slid 36.01 per cent to 868.54 million units, transaction value decreased 30.58 per cent to N31.48bn, and deal count fell about 0.48 per cent to 69,310 transactions. This is the third consecutive day of bearish trading on the NGX following weeks of a bullish run.

NIGERIA PAYS N140BN INTEREST ON DOMESTIC DOLLAR BOND

March 1, 2026 12:11 am Nigeria paid N140.29bn as interest on its domestic US dollar bond between January and September 2025, figures obtained from the Debt Management Office have shown. Data from the DMO’s Actual Domestic Debt Service report indicated that the Federal Government made two interest payments on the FGN US Dollar Bond during the period. It paid N67.99bn in March and N72.31bn in September, bringing the cumulative interest on the instrument to N140.29bn in nine months. The amount formed part of the N6.06tn total interest paid on domestic debt instruments between January and September 2025. Overall domestic debt service, comprising interest and principal repayments, stood at N6.32tn within the period under review. A breakdown of the interest component showed that Federal Government Bonds accounted for N4.17tn, while Nigerian Treasury Bills gulped N1.81tn. FGN Sukuk attracted N70.72bn, FGN Savings Bonds recorded N9.60bn, and the Green Bond accounted for N1.08bn in interest payments. Despite the N140.29bn interest outlay, the outstanding principal of the domestic dollar bond declined over the nine-month period. The DMO’s domestic debt stock report showed that Domestic FGN US Dollar Bonds stood at N1.41tn as of December 31, 2024. By September 30, 2025, the figure had dropped to N1.35tn, representing a decline of about N55.48bn. The PUNCH observed that the reduction was driven by exchange rate movements rather than any repayment of the underlying dollar principal. The DMO disclosed that the FGN US Dollar Bond of $917.41m issued in September 2024 was converted to naira at the Central Bank of Nigeria’s official exchange rate of N1,535.32 to $1 as of December 31, 2024. As of September 30, 2025, the outstanding amount was converted at a stronger official rate of N1,474.84 to $1.The appreciation of the naira between the two reporting dates reduced the naira value of the same dollar-denominated obligation. In practical terms, while the dollar liability remained broadly unchanged, the application of a lower exchange rate in September 2025 compared to December 2024 mechanically reduced the reported naira value of the bond by about N55.48bn. Meanwhile, total domestic debt stock rose from N70.41tn as of December 31, 2024, to N77.81tn as of September 30, 2025, indicating an increase of N7.40tn within nine months. FGN Bonds accounted for N55.44tn of the domestic debt stock at the end of 2024, representing 78.73 per cent of the total. By September 2025, FGN Bonds had increased to N61.99tn, accounting for 79.67 per cent of the domestic debt stock. Nigerian Treasury Bills rose from N12.35tn in December 2024 to N12.68tn by September 2025.Although the domestic dollar bond represents a relatively small share of the overall debt stock, the N140.29bn paid in interest over nine months highlights the cost implications of foreign-currency borrowing. The instrument accounted for about 2.31 per cent of the N6.06tn total interest paid on domestic debt within the review period. The figures illustrate how exchange rate dynamics can materially affect reported debt levels. A stronger naira reduces the local currency value of dollar obligations, but interest payments remain tied to the foreign currency exposure, reinforcing concerns about debt service pressures as government revenue continues to face competing demands. The dollar bond, introduced in August 2024 under the $2bn Domestic FGN US Dollar Bond Programme, raised over $900m from local investors and was the first of its kind to be issued domestically in foreign currency. The debut issuance was 180 per cent oversubscribed and has since been listed on the Nigerian Exchange and the FMDQ Exchange. It was later recognised as the “West Africa Deal of the Year.” While the bond has been praised for deepening Nigeria’s capital markets and providing an alternative to Eurobond issuance, it introduces considerable exchange rate risk. Although raised locally, the bond is dollar-denominated and therefore imposes a heavier repayment burden in naira terms whenever the local currency depreciates. While discussing the results of the bond issuance, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, noted that the oversubscription reflects investor confidence in Nigeria’s economic stability and potential for growth. Edun explained that the successful issuance of the domestic dollar bond marks a significant step in the government’s efforts to deepen economic growth and promote financial inclusion. He added that this achievement demonstrates the government’s commitment to diversifying funding sources amid economic challenges. “The issuance of this inaugural domestic FGN US Dollar Bond highlights the continued faith investors have in Nigeria’s economy,” Edun said. The $500m domestic FGN US Dollar Bond, with a five-year maturity and a 9.75 per cent coupon, is the first tranche of a $2bn bond programme registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

FINANCE MINISTER HAILS 4.07% GDP GROWTH IN Q4 2025

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, has welcomed the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics showing that Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product grew by 4.07% in the fourth quarter of 2025. In a statement on Saturday signed by Assistant Director, Information and Public Relations, Mrs Uloma Amadi, Edun described the growth as a sign of broad-based economic expansion and strengthening macroeconomic stability under the leadership of President Bola Tinubu. “This marks the second time in a decade—excluding the immediate post-pandemic rebound—that quarterly growth has exceeded 4%. It follows the 4.23% growth recorded in Q2 2025 and represents a clear improvement from 3.76% in Q3 2024,” the Minister said. Edun noted that growth in the fourth quarter was supported by the three major sectors of the economy. “Agriculture expanded by 4.0%, up from 2.54% in Q4 2024, supported by improved security in food-producing areas and better access to inputs. Industry grew by 3.88%, compared to 2.49% in the corresponding period of 2024, driven by improved foreign exchange liquidity, energy sector reforms, and stronger investor confidence. Services recorded 4.15% growth, reflecting continued expansion in finance, telecommunications, trade, and technology-driven activities,” he said. The Minister highlighted that approximately 30 subsectors recorded growth above 3%, showing the breadth and increasing diversification of the expansion. He also noted that for the full year, Nigeria’s real GDP grew by 3.87%, up from 3.38% in 2024, with the size of the economy increasing to ₦441.5 trillion, compared with ₦372.8 trillion in 2024. “This performance reflects improved fiscal coordination, disciplined expenditure management, stronger revenue mobilisation, and continued structural reforms aimed at restoring macroeconomic credibility,” Edun said, adding that the data reinforces confidence among domestic and international investors and signals that Nigeria’s reform programme is gaining traction. “The Ministry of Finance remains committed to sustained reform implementation, institutional coordination, and transparent engagement with stakeholders,” he concluded. The report released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Friday indicated that the expansion was supported by growth across the three major sectors of the economy, agriculture, industry and services, with the services sector retaining its position as the largest contributor to overall output.

CASH TRANSFERS REACHED NINE MILLION POOREST HOMES – FG

About nine million poorest households in Nigeria received direct cash transfers under reforms backed by the World Bank’s International Development Association, the Federal Government has said. In a statement issued on Thursday, the Federal Ministry of Finance said the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, disclosed this while delivering a keynote address at the IDA20 Retrospective Launch hosted by the World Bank Group on Wednesday. According to the statement, Edun said, “Reform must protect the vulnerable.” He noted that through digital ID integration, “Over 12 million Nigerians enrolled,” with “Nearly 60 per cent women,” while “nine million poorest households received direct cash transfers.” The minister added that when identification is secure and transparent, “Leakages decline. Trust improves. Opportunity expands. The ministry stated that IDA20, the World Bank Group’s 20th replenishment of the International Development Association, mobilised $97.4bn in concessional financing to support the world’s poorest and most vulnerable countries, including Nigeria, as they navigated poverty, fragility, climate change, and global economic shocks. Reflecting on the period of the programme’s launch, Edun said, “When IDA20 was launched, the world was in crisis.” He cited “Pandemic aftershocks. Supply chain disruptions. Rising food insecurity” as the global challenges at the time. The statement added that Nigeria faced mounting pressure “but chose reform over retreat,” highlighting “Exchange rate unification. Fuel subsidy removal. Ending deficit monetisation.” Edun said IDA’s Development Policy Operation “provided timely support when it mattered most.” Describing Nigeria’s relationship with the lender, he said, “Nigeria’s partnership with IDA is unique. We are both: A recipient; A contributing donor.” The minister further said IDA20 “demonstrated that pooled, concessional finance aligned to country priorities delivers better results,” stressing that “It reduced fragmentation. It strengthened coherence. It supported responsible reform.” The PUNCH earlier reported that Nigeria’s debt to the World Bank’s concessional lending arm, the International Development Association, surged by $1.9bn in just one year to reach $18.7bn as of December 31, 2025. According to the IDA Management’s Discussion and Analysis for the period ended December 31, 2025, Nigeria’s exposure to the bank’s loan portfolio rose significantly from $16.8bn at end-2024, marking an 11.3 per cent year-on-year increase. The sharp rise shows growing reliance on multilateral concessional financing as the Federal Government navigates tightening fiscal space amid global market volatility. The latest figures place Nigeria as the third-largest borrower in the IDA portfolio, behind Bangladesh ($23.0bn) and Pakistan ($19.4bn), among the top ten countries with the highest exposures.